Business cycle: Our preferred cyclical indicators are trending in the wrong direction, but they are not pointing to disaster. Shifting toward slowdown: Tactically, the picture has softened. Our ...

The U.S. economy is expected to slow in 2026 amid a downturn in optimism among households and businesses, according to a basket of monthly economic indicators. The Leading Economic Index, or LEI, ...

U.S. recession risk remains low, according to TMC Research’s business cycle indicator. Consumer spending and hiring have cooled, but have not broadly deteriorated. The hiring slowdown likely reflects ...

The Conference Board said Thursday (Aug. 20) that the Leading Economic Index’s (LEI) six-month growth rate turned positive for the first time in more than four years. The LEI’s six-month growth rate ...

The Conference Board's leading indicators no longer signal recession. The U.S. recession fears were partly responsible for the early August slide in stocks and cryptocurrencies. The leading U.S.

In this guide, we’ll explore how the economic cycle typically works, what signals often indicate each phase, and ways ...