Polling generally becomes more accurate as you get closer to Election Day. The exception to the rule is in the period immediately after the party conventions, when the polls can be a wild ride. In ...

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. So what’s going on in the states? We thought it was worth taking a look at that question now, as April featured some high-quality, state-level ...

Want these election updates emailed to you right when they’re published? Sign up here. I think of Florida and North Carolina as being the protagonists of this election. They have a bit of everything: ...

Ohio State somewhat embarrassed the Big Ten in getting shut out by Clemson 31-0 in the College Football Playoff semifinal last week. Still, hindsight is 20/20, and I don’t necessarily begrudge the ...

Ted Cruz leaves his campaign bus on Thursday in Weare, New Hampshire. HOLLIS, N.H. — A candidate is moving up in the New Hampshire polls — but it’s the man who finished third in the Iowa Republican ...

The whiplash induced by the American presidential primary season is harrowing. One week we are inundated by the snowy charms of Iowa and New Hampshire, beholden to king corn and, wrenchingly, dark ...

In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses the latest polling on President Trump’s handling of the pandemic and mass protests. They also look at what young liberals think ...

Want these election updates emailed to you right when they’re published? Sign up here. As I warned, that required a bit of cherry-picking. Several other polls of New Hampshire have been released since ...

Historically, polls-plus would have been somewhat more accurate, but it’s pretty close — so we think the models are most useful when looked at together. Indeed, they present different perspectives on ...

The biggest complaint I received in response to yesterday’s article, “Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud”, is that I had not provided for an adequate control ...

Turn on the news or read through much of the analysis put out by some of our friends, and you’re likely to hear a lot of talk about “momentum”: the term is used about 60 times per day by major media ...

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its latest round of job figures, and there’s a good chance they’ll show that the number of long-term jobless — typically defined as those out of ...