Hawkes processes represent a class of self-exciting point processes wherein each event increases the likelihood of subsequent events occurring over a short period. Initially developed by Alan Hawkes ...

The Monte Carlo simulation estimates the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted because of the potential for random variables.

Before ChatGPT could write essays, explain tax code, or summarize earnings reports, it had to master something far simpler but no less profound: probability. While headlines may credit “artificial ...