The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity.

The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond ...

Using historical data on U.S. commercial bank balance sheets, we show that banks’ maturity mismatch has more than tripled since the mid-1980s, moving in close lockstep with declining interest rates ...

We study how AI affects market competition based on a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms facing idiosyncratic productivity and variable markups. Firms choose the AI technology ...

The following transcript has been edited lightly for clarity. Alan J. Auerbach: Thank you very much. It’s a great pleasure to open the conference with a keynote speech by Mary Daly. Mary is the ...

This note uses three publicly available surveys with complementary target respondents to examine trends in AI adoption in the U.S. through 2025. Business survey data from the Census Bureau show that ...

For three decades, American workers have been pulling ahead of their European counterparts. Between 1995 and 2025, output per hour increased by 88% in the U.S. versus just 30% in the 20 countries ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

This site presents a real-time, quarterly series on total factor productivity (TFP) for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization – labor effort and capital’s workweek.

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and ...