The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity.

The relation between stocks and bonds indicates whether supply or demand shocks dominate the risks to economic activity. After two decades of concerns primarily about changes in demand, the stock-bond ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

With the advent of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), the scope of AI has increased dramatically, but its effect on labour productivity remains uncertain. Some innovations raise labour ...

Real-time evidence from users can inform the current policy debates around artificial intelligence. This column reports on a survey of executives at typical US firms to reveal that AI adoption is ...

Using historical data on U.S. commercial bank balance sheets, we show that banks’ maturity mismatch has more than tripled ...

We study how AI affects market competition based on a general equilibrium framework with heterogeneous firms facing idiosyncratic productivity and variable markups. Firms choose the AI technology ...

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and ...